Avanzando en el análisis probabilístico de marcos: un enfoque integral mediante simulaciones Monte Carlo y superficies de respuesta
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Resumen
Se realizó un análisis probabilístico de elementos finitos en ANSYS que amplía el enfoque del pórtico canónico de Haldar y Mahadevan. El modelo se parametriza con once variables aleatorias que incluyen las cargas impuestas, las propiedades geométricas de las secciones, las longitudes de los miembros, el módulo elástico y el desplazamiento horizontal límite. El modelo incorpora un análisis de las sensibilidades probabilísticas de las variables y la evaluación de la probabilidad de falla de la estructura. El criterio de falla se introduce a través de una función de estado límite de desplazamiento horizontal. Los resultados de la confiabilidad estructural del pórtico utilizando los métodos de Monte Carlo (MC), Monte Carlo con Muestreo por Hipercubo Latino (MCLH) y Superficie de Respuesta con polinomios lineales (RSM-LIN) y cuadráticos (RSM-QUAX) son contundentes y se destacan los bajos costos computacionales logrados con los métodos RSM. Finalmente, se pronostican aplicaciones futuras en pórticos que incluyan no linealidad geométrica y de materiales, carga dinámica y otros escenarios de carga extrema.
Palabras clave
confiabilidad estructural, diseño de experimentos, elementos finitos, método de superficie de respuesta, métodos Monte Carlo, sensibilidades probabilísticas
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