Detection of Homicide Trends in Colombia Using Machine Learning
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.19053/01211129.v29.n54.2020.11740Keywords:
data mining, homicide, machine learning, random forestAbstract
The number of violent homicides in Latin America has grown considerably in recent decades, due to the expansion and rise of organized criminal groups in rural and urban areas of the main cities of countries such as Mexico, Colombia and Venezuela. Given their high homicide rate as a consequence of the high crime rate, these countries have been classified among the most violent in the world. According to data reported by the Crime Observatory, the National Police and the Attorney General's Office of Colombia, in 2019 there were 1,032 murders in Bogotá. This data shows a homicide rate of 14.3 per 100,000 inhabitants. From this, it is estimated that between 1960 and 2019, around 226,215 homicides were generated, which is, on average, 3,834 deaths per year. In this work a random forest-based machine learning model is presented, which allows predicting violent homicide (VH) trends in Colombia for the next 5 years. The objective of the model is to serve as an instrument to facilitate decision-making in organizations such as the Prosecutor’s Office and the National Police. The model was evaluated with a dataset obtained from the Criminal, Contraventional and Operational Statistical Information System (SIEDCO in Spanish) of the Prosecutor's Office, which has 2,662,402 records of crimes committed in Colombia from 1960 to 2019.
Downloads
References
[2] A. Vazsonyi, J. Wittekind, L. Belliston, and T. Loh, Global Study on Homicide - Homicide trends, patterns and criminal justice response, 2019. https://doi.org/10.1023/B:JOQC.0000037731.28786.e3
[3] M. M. Rogers, and J. E. Storey, “Elder homicide: A systematic literature review,” Aggression and Violent Behavior, vol. 48, pp. 141-151, 2019. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.avb.2019.08.008
[4] F. Li, S. Liu, X. Lu, Y. Ou, and P. S. F. Yip, “Application of the injury scales in homicides,” Forensic Science International, vol. 292, pp. 83-89, 2018. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.forsciint.2018.09.010
[5] M. C. Ingram, and M. Marchesini da Costa, “Political geography of violence: Municipal politics and homicide in Brazil,” World Dev., vol. 124, 2019. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2019.06.016
[6] O. Fals Borda, “La Violencia en Colombia,” Entornos, vol. 29 (2), p. 27, 2016. https://doi.org/10.25054/01247905.1260
[7] M. Neira, and N. H. Martínez, Documentos de Política Pública y Armas y homicidios, Bogotá D. C.: Ministerio de Salud y Protección Social, 2019.
[8] D. E. Goin, K. E. Rudolph, and J. Ahern, “Predictors of firearm violence in urban communities: A machine-learning approach,” Health & Place, vol. 51, pp. 61-67, 2018. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.healthplace.2018.02.013
[9] R. Katuwal, P. N. Suganthan, and L. Zhang, “Heterogeneous oblique random forest,” Pattern Recognition, vol. 99, e107078, 2020. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.patcog.2019.107078
[10] J. L. Speiser, M. E. Miller, J. Tooze, and E. Ip, “A comparison of random forest variable selection methods for classification prediction modeling,” Expert Systems with Applications, vol. 134, pp. 93-101, 2019. http://doi.org/10.1016/j.eswa.2019.05.028
[11] W. C. Regoeczi, and T. D. Miethe, “Homicide,” in International Encyclopedia of the Social & Behavioral Sciences, 2015.
[12] C. Echandía, “Dimensión regional del homicidio en Colombia,” Coyuntura Social, vol. 17, pp. 89-103, 1997.
[13] F. Humberto, S. Murillo, J. Chica, A. Rodríguez, and G. De Cortázar, “The spatial heterogeneity of factors of feminicide : The case of Antioquia- Colombia,” Applied Geography, vol. 92, pp. 63-73, 2018. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apgeog.2018.01.006
[14] F. J. Escobedo, N. Clerici, C. L. Staudhammer, A. Feged-rivadeneira, J. Camilo, and G. Tovar, “Land Use Policy Trees and Crime in Bogota , Colombia : Is the link an ecosystem disservice or,” Land use policy, vol. 78, pp. 583-592, 2018. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2018.07.029
[15] A. M. Pardo-Monta, “Violence in Colombia and Mexico: trend and impact on life expectancy of homicide mortality between 1998 and 2015,” Public Health, vol. 3, pp. 1-8, 2018. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.puhe.2018.06.001
[16] N. M. Valencia, “Proceso de reconstrucción de memoria,” Revista de Estudios Sociales, vol. 9, pp. 13-38, 2013.
[17] L. C. Cartagena, “Los estudios de la violencia en Colombia antes de la violentología,” Diálogos Revista Electrónica, vol. 17 (1), pp. 1-30, 2015. https://doi.org/10.15517/dre.v17i1.18103
[18] K. Tardiff, P. M. Marzuk, K. Lowell, L. Portera, and A. C. Leon, “A study of drug abuse and other causes of homicide in New York,” Journal of Criminal Justice, vol. 30 (4), pp. 317–325, 2002. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0047-2352(02)00132-0
Downloads
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
All articles included in the Revista Facultad de Ingeniería are published under the Creative Commons (BY) license.
Authors must complete, sign, and submit the Review and Publication Authorization Form of the manuscript provided by the Journal; this form should contain all the originality and copyright information of the manuscript.
The authors who publish in this Journal accept the following conditions:
a. The authors retain the copyright and transfer the right of the first publication to the journal, with the work registered under the Creative Commons attribution license, which allows third parties to use what is published as long as they mention the authorship of the work and the first publication in this Journal.
b. Authors can make other independent and additional contractual agreements for the non-exclusive distribution of the version of the article published in this journal (eg, include it in an institutional repository or publish it in a book) provided they clearly indicate that the work It was first published in this Journal.
c. Authors are allowed and recommended to publish their work on the Internet (for example on institutional or personal pages) before and during the process.
review and publication, as it can lead to productive exchanges and a greater and faster dissemination of published work.
d. The Journal authorizes the total or partial reproduction of the content of the publication, as long as the source is cited, that is, the name of the Journal, name of the author (s), year, volume, publication number and pages of the article.
e. The ideas and statements issued by the authors are their responsibility and in no case bind the Journal.
