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Vol. 15 No. 1
enero-junio de 2015

ARTICULOS

Inventory model using bayesian dynamic linear model for demand forecasting

https://doi.org/10.19053/1900771X.3937

Published 2014-12-20

  • Marisol Valencia-Cárdenas
    • ,
  • Juan Carlos Correa-Morales
    • ,
  • Francisco Javier Díaz-Serna

Marisol Valencia-Cárdenas
Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Facultad de minas,Grupo investigación UNGIDO.

Juan Carlos Correa-Morales
Universidad Nacional de Colombia,Escuela de Estadística,Grupo investigación en estadística.

Francisco Javier Díaz-Serna
Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Facultad de minas,Grupo investigación UNGIDO.

Abstract

An important factor of manufacturing process is the inventory management of terminated product. Constantly, industry is looking for better alternatives to establish an adequate plan of production and stored quantities, with optimal cost, getting quantities in a time horizon, which permits to define resources and logistics with anticipation, needed to distribute products on time. Total absence of historical data, required by many statistical models to forecast, demands the search for other kind of accurate techniques. This work presents an alternative that not only permits to forecast, in an adjusted way, but also, to provide optimal quantities to produce and store with an optimal cost, using Bayesian statistics. The proposal is illustrated with real data. Palabras clave: estadística bayesiana, optimización, modelo de inventarios, modelo lineal dinámico bayesiano. Keywords: Bayesian statistics, opti

Keywords

bayesian statistics, optimization, inventory models, dynamic linear model.

PDF (Español)

Author Biography

Marisol Valencia-Cárdenas

Administrativo Profesional

Oficina Educación Virtual

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