"La Nairu" una aproximación teórica (2ª parte)

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Hector Javier Fuentes López


En este trabajo, se hace una reflexión en torno al concepto de tasa natural de desempleo y de la NAIRU a partir del debate sobre la relación entre inflación y desempleo. Se demuestra que la NAIRU puede cambiar a través de tiempo y que sus estimaciones econométricas presentan algunas inconsistencias. La intención del trabajo es aplicar la técnica del filtro del Kalman a un modelo de curva de Phillips aumentada con expectativas y obtener las derivaciones de la NAIRU para la Economía colombiana durante el periodo de 1990 a 2005. Los resultados sugieren que en muy pocas ocasiones la tasa de desempleo ha estado por debajo de la NAIRU, por lo que las presiones del mercado laboral sobre el mercado monetario son muy limitadas. Los cambios de esta tasa para Colombia se han dado por aspectos asociados a los cambios demográficos de la fuerza laboral, al fenómeno de histéresis, así como a la reconversión tecnológica producto de la apertura económica y los procesos de integración de mercados.


This paper presents an analysis of the concept of the natural rate of unemployment and NAIRU through a discussion of inflation and unemployment. This paper also shows that NAIRU may vary over time and that its econometric estimations present a few inconsistencies. The intent of the work is to apply the Kalman filter technique to a Phillips curve with rational expectations and to obtain the derivations for the NAIRU of the Colombian economy during 1990-2005. The results suggest that only on a few occasions has the rate of unemployment been below the NAIRU since labor market pressures on the currency market are very limited. The shifts of this rate on the Colombian economy have been associated with demographic changes in the labor force, histeresis and technological reconfiguration as a result of the lifting of trade barriers and the integrated market processes.Abstract




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