Efecto derrame del mercado internacional en las economías latinoamericanas: los casos de Chile, Brasil, Colombia y México
- Juan Manuel Candelo-Viafara
, - Andrés Felipe Oviedo-Gómez
Resumen
En esta investigación se evalúan los efectos del desbordamiento y la volatilidad generados por los precios del petróleo, el gas y el carbón sobre la actividad industrial de las economías de Chile, Brasil, Colombia y México, usando la metodología propuesta por Diebold y Yilmaz (2012), que se caracteriza por el uso de vectores autorregresivos generalizados, donde la descomposición de la varianza no varía según el orden de las variables, midiendo así los efectos de contagio de la volatilidad total y direccional. Los resultados muestran que estas industrias reciben el derrame financiero de los mercados de materias primas, ocasionado por las fluctuaciones de los precios del petróleo y carbón y, además, se comportan como transmisoras del derrame que producen las oscilaciones de los precios del gas. Por otro lado, se halló que meses previos a la crisis económica del 2008, las cuatro industrias y dichos productos aumentaron el efecto derrame y la volatilidad.
Palabras clave
efecto derrame; precios del petróleo; precios del carbón; precios del gas; crecimiento económico;
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