Comunicación, jugadas estratégicas y compromiso: un análisis desde la economía experimental
- Luis Alejandro Palacio Garcia
, - Brayan Snehider Díaz Pérez
Resumen
Thomas Schelling es uno de los grandes referentes en teoría de juegos y negociación, pues ha sido reconocido como un pionero al proponer los conceptos y sentar las bases de los modelos formales, basado siempre en la observación y el contraste empírico. Su enfoque sobre la comunicación, las jugadas estratégicas y el compromiso permite entender las ventajas, en términos de poder de negociación, de anunciar públicamente que la decisión ya está tomada, incluso cuando el mensaje es simple palabrería. Tomando este punto de partida, este artículo se centra en cómo la economía experimental ha permitido ampliar y afinar sus propuestas originales. Es posible clasificar esta literatura en tres vertientes: 1) comunicación no vinculante, 2) utilización de jugadas estratégicas, 3) credibilidad y compromiso. Entre los hallazgos se resalta que la comunicación es un mecanismo útil para transmitir información privada y, por lo tanto, afecta las creencias y el comportamiento de los negociadores. Por su parte, las jugadas estratégicas cumplen el rol de transferir la ventaja del primer movimiento al segundo jugador. Por último, el sentido de justicia, el temor a los castigos y la reputación de los negociadores afectan la credibilidad de sus amenazas.
Palabras clave
Teoría de juegos y teoría de la negociación, teoría de la confrontación, amenazas, poder de negociación, resolución de conflictos, compromiso creíble
Biografía del autor/a
Brayan Snehider Díaz Pérez
Economista UIS. Asistente de investigación en el Grupo de Investigaciones Económicas y Financieras de la Universidad EAFIT
Referencias
- Aumann, R. (1990). Nash-Equilibria are not Self-Enforcing. In J. Gabszewicz, J. F. Richard, & L. Wolsey (Eds.), Economic Decision Making: Games, Econometrics and Optimization (pp. 201-206). North-Holland.
- Baliga, S., & Sjöström, T. (2012). The Strategy of Manipulating Conflict. American Economic Review, 102(6), 2897-2922.
- https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.102.6.2897 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.102.6.2897
- Benard, S. (2013). Reputation Systems, Aggression, and Deterrence in Social Interaction. Social Science Research, 42(1), 230-245.
- https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ssresearch.2012.09.004 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ssresearch.2012.09.004
- Binmore, K., Shaked, A., & Sutton, J. (1985). Testing Noncooperative Bargaining Theory: A Preliminary Study. American Economic Review, 75(5), 1178-1180.
- Blume, A., & Ortmann, A. (2007). The Effects of Costless Pre-Play Communication: Experimental Evidence from Games with Pareto-Ranked Equilibria. Journal of Economic Theory, 132, 274-290.
- https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jet.2005.03.001 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jet.2005.03.001
- Bolton, G. (1998). Bargaining and Dilemma Games: From Laboratory Data Towards Theoretical Synthesis. Experimental Economics, 1(3), 257-281.
- https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1009911411418 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1009911411418
- https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1009951108693 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1009951108693
- Bornstein, G., Budescu, D., & Zamir, S. (1997). Cooperation in Intergroup, N-Person, and Two-Person Games of Chicken. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 41(3), 384-406.
- https://doi.org/10.1177/0022002797041003003 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1177/0022002797041003003
- Bosman, R., & Van Winden, F. (2002). Emotional Hazard in a Power-to-Take Experiment. The Economic Journal, 112(476), 147-169.
- https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-0297.0j677 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-0297.0j677
- Brandts, J., & Charness, G. (2000). Hot vs. Cold: Sequential Responses and Preference Stability in Experimental Games. Experimental Economics, 2(3), 227-238.
- https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1009962612354 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1009962612354
- Brandts, J., & Charness, G. (2003). Truth or Consequences: An Experiment. Management Science, 49(1), 116-130.
- https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.49.1.116.12755 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.49.1.116.12755
- Cabrales, A., Charness, G., & Villeval, M. C. (2011). Hidden Information, Bargaining Power, and Efficiency: An Experiment. Experimental Economics, 14(2), 133-159.
- https://doi.org/10.1007/s10683-010-9260-6 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10683-010-9260-6
- Charness, G. (2000). Self-Serving Cheap Talk: A Test of Aumann's Conjecture. Games and Economic Behavior, 33(2), 177-194.
- https://doi.org/10.1006/game.1999.0776 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1006/game.1999.0776
- Charness, G., & Dufwenberg, M. (2006). Promises and Partnership. Econometrica, 74(6), 1579-1601.
- https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0262.2006.00719.x DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0262.2006.00719.x
- Charness, G., & Dufwenberg, M. (2010). Bare Promises: An Experiment. Economics Letters, 107(2), 281-283.
- https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2010.02.009 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2010.02.009
- Conrads, J., & Irlenbusch, B. (2013). Strategic Ignorance in Ultimatum Bargaining. Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, 92, 104-115. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2013.05.010 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2013.05.010
- Cooper, R., DeJong, D., Forsythe, R., & Ross, T. (1989). Communication in the Battle of the Sexes Game: Some Experimental Results. RAND Journal of Economics, 20(4), 568-587. https://doi.org/10.2307/2555527 DOI: https://doi.org/10.2307/2555734
- Cooper, R., DeJong, D., Forsythe, R., & Ross, T. (1990). Selection Criteria in Coordination Games: Some Experimental Results. American Economic Review, 80(1), 218-233.
- Cooper, R., DeJong, D., Forsythe, R., & Ross, T. (1992). Communication in Coordination Games. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 107(2), 739-771. https://doi.org/10.2307/2118488 DOI: https://doi.org/10.2307/2118488
- Cooper, R., DeJong, D., Forsythe, R., & Ross, T. (1993). Forward Induction in the Battle-of-the-Sexes Games. American Economic Review, 83(5), 1303-1316.
- Cooper, R., DeJong, D., Forsythe, R., & Ross, T. (1996). Cooperation without Reputation: Experimental Evidence from Prisoner's Dilemma Games. Games and Economic Behavior, 12(2), 187-218. https://doi.org/10.1006/game.1996.0013 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1006/game.1996.0013
- Crawford, V. (2003). Lying for Strategic Advantage: Rational and Boundedly Rational Misrepresentation of Intentions. The American Economic Review, 93(1), 133-149. https://doi.org/10.1257/000282803321455197 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1257/000282803321455197
- Crawford, V., Gneezy, U., & Rottenstreich, Y. (2008). The Power of Focal Points is Limited: Even Minute Payoff Asymmetry May Yield Large Coordination Failures. American Economic Review, 98(4), 1443-1458. https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.98.4.1443 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.98.4.1443
- Crawford, V., & Sobel, J. (1982). Strategic Information Transmission. Econometrica, 50(6), 1431-1451. https://doi.org/10.2307/1913390 DOI: https://doi.org/10.2307/1913390
- Croson, R., Boles, T., & Murnighan, K. (2003). Cheap Talk in Bargaining Experiments: Lying and Threats in Ultimatum Games. Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 51(2), 143-159. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0167-2681(02)00092-6 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/S0167-2681(02)00092-6
- Dixit, A. (2006). Thomas Schelling's Contributions to Game Theory. The Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 108(2), 213-229.
- https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9442.2006.00447.x DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9442.2006.00447.x
- Dixit, A., & Nalebuff, B. (2010). El arte de la estrategia. Anthony Bosh Editor.
- Duffy, J., & Feltovich, N. (2002). Do Actions Speak Louder than Words? An Experimental Comparison of Observation and Cheap Talk. Games and Economic Behavior, 39(1), 1-27.
- https://doi.org/10.1006/game.2001.0892 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1006/game.2001.0892
- Ellingsen, T., & Johannesson, M. (2004). Promises, Threats and Fairness. The Economic Journal, 114(495), 397-420.
- https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0297.2004.00214.x DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0297.2004.00214.x
- Ellingsen, T., & Johannesson, M. (2008). Anticipated Verbal Feedback Induces Altruistic Behavior. Evolution and Human Behavior, 29(2), 100-105. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.evolhumbehav.2007.11.001 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.evolhumbehav.2007.11.001
- Elster, J. (1996). Rationality and the Emotions. The Economic Journal, 106(438), 1386-1397. https://doi.org/10.2307/2235530 DOI: https://doi.org/10.2307/2235530
- Elster, J. (1998). Emotions and Economic Theory. Journal of Economic Literature, 36(1), 47-74.
- Embrey, M., Fréchette, G., & Lehrer, S. (2015). Bargaining and Reputation: An Experiment on Bargaining in the Presence of Behavioural Types. Review of Economic Studies, 82(2), 608-631. https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdu029 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdu029
- Farrell, J., & Gibbons, R. (1989). Cheap Talk Can Matter in Bargaining. Journal of Economic Theory, 48(1), 221-237.
- https://doi.org/10.1016/0022-0531(89)90125-7 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/0022-0531(89)90125-7
- Farrell, J., & Rabin, M. (1996). Cheap Talk. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 10(3), 103-118. https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.10.3.103 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.10.3.103
- Fehr, E., & Gächter, S. (2000). Cooperation and Punishment in Public Goods Experiments. American Economic Review, 90(4), 980-994. https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.90.4.980 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.90.4.980
- Fellner, G., & Güth, W. (2003). What Limits Escalation? Varying Threat Power in an Ultimatum Experiment. Economics Letters, 80(1), 53-60. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0165-1765(03)00063-6 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/S0165-1765(03)00063-6
- Fischer, S., Güth, W., Müller, W., & Stiehler, A. (2006). From Ultimatum to Nash Bargaining: Theory and Experimental Evidence. Experimental Economics, 9(1), 17-33. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10683-006-1468-0 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10683-006-1468-0
- Forsythe, R., Kennan, J., & Sopher, B. (1991). An Experimental Analysis of Strikes in Bargaining Games with One-Sided Private Information. American Economic Review, 81(1), 253-278.
- Forsythe, R., Lundholm, R., & Rietz, T. (1999). Cheap Talk, Fraud, and Adverse Selection in Financial Markets: Some Experimental Evidence. The Review of Financial Studies, 12(3), 481-518. https://doi.org/10.1093/revfin/12.3.0481 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1093/revfin/12.3.0481
- Frank, R. (1988). Passions Within Reason: The Strategic Role of Emotions (p. 304). W. W. Norton & Company Inc.
- Frank, R. (1993). The Strategic Role of the Emotions: Reconciling Over-And Undersocialized Accounts of Behavior. Rationality and Society, 5(2), 160-184. https://doi.org/10.1177/1043463193005002003 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1177/1043463193005002003
- Gintis, H., Smith, E., & Bowles, S. (2001). Costly Signaling and Cooperation. Journal of Theoretical Biology, 213(1), 103-119.
- https://doi.org/10.1006/jtbi.2001.2406 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1006/jtbi.2001.2406
- Glick, S., & Croson, R. (2001). Reputations in Negotiation. In S. J. Hoch, H. C. Kunreuther, & R. E. Gunther (Eds.), Wharton on Making Decisions (pp. 177-186). John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
- Güth, W., Huck, S., & Rapoport, A. (1998). The Limitations of the Positional Order Effect: Can it Support Silent Threats and Non-Equilibrium Behavior? Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 34(2), 313-325. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0167-2681(97)00057-7 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/S0167-2681(97)00057-7
- Güth, W., Müller, W., & Spiegel, Y. (2006). Noisy Leadership: An Experimental Approach. Games and Economic Behavior, 57(1), 37-62. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geb.2006.05.004 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geb.2006.05.004
- Halevy, N., Weisel, O., & Bornstein, G. (2011). ''In-Group Love'' and ''Out-Group Hate'' in Repeated Interaction Between Groups. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 25(2), 188-195. https://doi.org/10.1002/bdm.726 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1002/bdm.726
- Hirshleifer, J. (1987). On the Emotions as Guarantors of Threats and Promises. In J. Dupré (Ed.), The Latest on the Best: Essays on Evolution and Optimality (pp. 307-326). MIT Press.
- Hirshleifer, J. (2000). Game-Theoretic Interpretations of Commitment. UCLA Department of Economics in its series UCLA Economics Working Papers 799.
- Hörtnagl, T., Kerschbamer, R., & Stracke, R. (2019). Competing for Market Shares: Does the Order of Moves Matter Even When It Shouldn't? Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 166, 346-365. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2019.07.005 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2019.07.005
- Huck, S., & Müller, W. (2005). Burning Money and (Pseudo) First-Mover Advantages: An Experimental Study on Forward Induction. Games and Economic Behavior, 51(1), 109-127. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geb.2004.03.006 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geb.2004.03.006
- Klein, D., & O'Flaherty, B. (1993). A Game-Theoretic Rendering of Promises and Threats. Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 21(3), 295-314.
- https://doi.org/10.1016/0167-2681(93)90054-S DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/0167-2681(93)90054-S
- Mago, S., Sheremeta, R., & Yates, A. (2013). Best-of-Three Contest Experiments: Strategic Versus Psychological Momentum. International Journal of Industrial Organization, 31(3), 287-296.
- https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijindorg.2012.11.006 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijindorg.2012.11.006
- Myerson, R. (2009). Learning from Schelling's Strategy of Conflict. Journal of Economic Literature, 47(4), 1109-1125.
- https://doi.org/10.1257/jel.47.4.1109 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1257/jel.47.4.1109
- Neugebauer, T., Poulsen, A., & Schram, A. (2008). Fairness and Reciprocity in the Hawk-Dove Game. Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 66(2), 243-250. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2005.12.008 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2005.12.008
- Nikiforakis, N. (2008). Punishment and Counter-Punishment in Public Good Games: Can we Really Govern Ourselves? Journal of Public Economics, 92(1-2), 91-112. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2007.04.008 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2007.04.008
- Nikiforakis, N., & Engelmann, D. (2011). Altruistic Punishment and the Threat of Feuds. Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 78(3), 319-332. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2011.01.017 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2011.01.017
- Ockenfels, A., & Selten, R. (2000). An Experiment on the Hypothesis of Involuntary Truth-Signalling in Bargaining. Games and Economic Behavior, 33(1), 90-116. https://doi.org/10.1006/game.1999.0762 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1006/game.1999.0762
- Orbell, J., & Dawes, R. (1993). Social Welfare, Cooperators' Advantage, and the Option of Not Playing the Game. American Sociological Review, 58(6), 787-800. https://doi.org/10.2307/2095951 DOI: https://doi.org/10.2307/2095951
- Palacio, L., Cortés, A., & Muñoz-Herrera, M. (2015a). The Bargaining Power of Commitment: An Experiment of the Effects of Threats in the Sequential Hawk-Dove Game. Rationality and Society, 27(3), 283-308. https://doi.org/10.1177/1043463115592848 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1177/1043463115592848
- Palacio, L., Cortés, A., & Muñoz-Herrera, M. (2015b). The Strategic Role of Nonbinding Communication. Applied Mathematics, 11.
- https://doi.org/10.1155/2015/910614 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1155/2015/910614
- Poulsen, A., & Roos, M. (2010). Do People Make Strategic Commitments? Experimental Evidence on Strategic Information Avoidance. Experimental Economics, 13(2), 206-225. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10683-010-9236-6 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10683-010-9236-6
- Poulsen, A., & Tan, J. (2007). Information Acquisition in the Ultimatum Game: An Experimental Study. Experimental Economics, 10(4), 391-409. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10683-006-9143-z DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10683-006-9143-z
- Rabin, M. (1990). Communication Between Rational Agents. Journal of Economic Theory, 51(1), 144-170. https://doi.org/10.1016/0022-0531(90)90055-O DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/0022-0531(90)90055-O
- Roth, A. E., Murnighan, J. K., & Schoumaker, F. (1988). The Deadline Effect in Bargaining: Some Experimental Evidence. The American Economic Review, 78(4), 806-823.
- Roth, A., Malouf, M., & Murnighan, J. (1981). Sociological Versus Strategic Variables in Bargaining. Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 2(2), 153-178. https://doi.org/10.1016/0167-2681(81)90003-2 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/0167-2681(81)90003-2
- Rubinstein, A. (1982). Perfect Equilibrium in a Bargaining Model. Econometrica, 50(1), 97-109. https://doi.org/10.2307/1912531 DOI: https://doi.org/10.2307/1912531
- Salazar, B. (2007). Thomas Schelling: la paradoja de un economista errante. Revista de Economía Institucional, 9, 131-152.
- Schelling, T. (1956). An Essay on Bargaining. American Economic Review, 46(3), 281-306.
- Schelling, T. (1960). The Strategy of Conflict (p. 309). Harvard University Press.
- Selten, R. (1975). Reexamination of the Perfectness Concept for Equilibrium Points in Extensive Games. International Journal of Game Theory, 4(1), 25-55. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01766400 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01766400
- Sheremeta, R. (2010). Experimental Comparison of Multi-Stage and One-Stage Contests. Games and Economic Behavior, 68(2), 731-747. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geb.2009.08.001 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geb.2009.08.001
- Steinel, W., & Dreu, C. (2004). Social Motives and Strategic Misrepresentation in Social Decision Making. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 86(3), 419-434. https://doi.org/10.1037/0022-3514.86.3.419 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1037/0022-3514.86.3.419
- Valley, K., Moag, J., & Bazerman, M. (1998). 'A Matter of Trust': Effects of Communication on the Efficiency and Distribution of Outcomes. Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 34(2), 211-238. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0167-2681(97)00054-1 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/S0167-2681(97)00054-1
- Wilson, R., & Sell, J. (1997). "Liar, Liar...": Cheap Talk and Reputation in Repeated Public Good Settings. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 41(5), 695-717. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022002797041005005 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1177/0022002797041005005
Descargas
Los datos de descargas todavía no están disponibles.