Exchange Rate, Price Level and Divergences: A Regional Analysis for the Argentine Republic
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.19053/01203053.v40.n72.2021.12333Keywords:
price index, exchange rate, regions, Argentina, regional analysis, common cycles, cointegrationAbstract
This paper studies the relationship between the exchange rate and the price level in regional settings for the Argentine Republic. It is considered that exchange rate fluctuations have a dissimilar influence on the price indices faced by the six regions that form the Argentine territory, according to the classification of the National Institute of Statistics and Census (INDEC, by its acronym in Spanish). The exchange rate, the national consumer price index and the consumer price indices of each region are used as variables. The empirical analysis is carried out using descriptive statistics and the application of econometric methods of cointegration and common cycles in order to know the correspondence between the variables both in the short and long term. The results show that exchange rate variations influence in different ways the prices of the different regions that make up the Argentine Republic. Likewise, there are significant differences between the results obtained at the national level and for each region both in the short and long term. The latter suggests the existence of particular regional heterogeneities that imply different effects of the exchange rate on prices throughout the country.
Downloads
References
Azpiazu, D. & Basualdo, E. (2003). Industria vitivinícola y economías regionales. CEPAL.
Baqueiro, A., Díaz, A. & Torres, A. (2003). ¿Temor a la flotación o a la inflación?: la importancia del “traspaso” del tipo de cambio a los precios. Revista Ensayos sobre Política Económica, 21(44), 64-94. https://doi.org/10.32468/Espe.4402
Banco Central de la República Argentina −BCRA−. (2020). Estadísticas. http://www.bcra.gov.ar/estadisticas
BBVA. (2015). Situación Galicia. BBVA Unidad de España. https://www.bbvaresearch.com/wpcontent/uploads/2015/05/Situacion_Galicia_may15.pdf
Castillo-Ponce, A., Varela, R. & Ocegueda, J. (2013). Traspaso del tipo de cambio al nivel de precios: un análisis regional. Economía, Sociedad y Territorio, 13(43), 675-695. https://doi.org/10.22136/est00201343
Ca`Zorzi, M., Hahn, E. & Sánchez, M. (2007). Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Emerging Markets. IUP Journal of Monetary Economics, 4, 84-102.
Choudhri, E. & Hakura, D. (2006). Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Domestic Prices: Does the Inflationary Environment Matter? Journal of International Money, 25, 614-639. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2005.11.009
D ay, J. A . (2014). Economías regionales. Un planteo global. Fundación Mediterránea.
De Gregorio, J. (2007). Macroeconomía: teoría y políticas. McGraw-Hill. http://www.degregorio.cl/pdf/Macroeconomia.pdf
De Gregorio, J. (2009). Tipo de cambio, ajuste real y política monetaria. Banco Central de Chile. https://dialnet.unirioja.es/servlet/articulo?codigo=3115482
Dickey, D. & Fuller, W. A. (1979). Distribution of the Estimators for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74, 427-431. https://doi.org/10.2307/2286348
Dini, M., Ferraro, C. & Gasaly, C. (2007). Pymes y articulación productiva. Resultados y lecciones a partir de experiencias en América Latina. Serie Desarrollo Productivo n.° 180. CEPAL.
Edwards, S. (2006). The Relationship Between Exchange Rates and Inflation Targeting Revisited. National Bureau of Economic Research. https://doi.org/10.3386/w12163
Engle, R. & Granger, C. (1987). Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 55(2), 251-276. https://doi.org/10.2307/1913236
European Central Bank. (2017). Report on German, Austrian and Czech Regions. European Central Bank.
Gay, A. & Cugat, C. (2010). Pass-through del tipo de cambio e inflación. Universidad Nacional de Córdoba. https://ecodev.eco.unc.edu.ar/files/ief/workshops/2010/14dic10_work_gay_cugat.pdf
Ghosh, A. (2013). Exchange-rate Pass-Through, Macro Fundamentals and Regime Choices in Latin America. Journal of Macroeconomics, 35, 163-171. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmacro.2012.09.001
Gianelli, D. (2011). El traspaso de tipo de cambio a precios en Uruguay. FCS-DE. https://www.colibri.udelar.edu.uy/jspui/handle/20.500.12008/2218
Goldfajn, L. & Werlang, S. (2000). The Pass Through Form Depreciation to Inflation: A Panel Study. Working Paper Banco Central do Brasil, (5), 1-50. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.224277
Instituto Nacional de Estadísticas y Censos de Argentina -INDEC-. (2017). Índice de Precios al Consumidor. https://www.indec.gob.ar/indec/web/Nivel4-Tema-3-5-31
Instituto Nacional de Estadísticas y Censos de Argentina -INDEC-. (2020). Estadísticas. https://www.indec.gob.ar/estadisticas
Johansen, S. (1988). Statistical Analysis of Cointegration Vectors. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 12(2-3), 231-254. https://doi.org/10.1016/0165-1889(88)90041-3
Krugman, P. & Taylor, L. (1978). Contractionary Effects of Devaluation. Journal of Internat ional Economics, 3(8), 4 45 - 456. ht t ps://doi.org/10.1016/0022-1996(78)90007-7
Larraín, F. & Sachs, J. (1986). Contractionary Devaluation and Dynamic Adjustment of Exports and Wages. NBER Working Papers, (2078). https://doi.org/10.3386/w2078
Mazzola, N. S. (2014). Modernización tecnológica y prácticas innovativas en la cadena vitivinícola del valle Antinaco-Los Colorados, provincia de La Rioja. (Tesis de Maestría, Maestría en Ciencia, Tecnología y Sociedad). Universidad Nacional de Quilmes, Argentina.
McCarthy, J. (2007). Pass-Through of Exchange Rates and Import Prices to Domestic Inflation in Some Industrialized Economies. Eastern Economic Journals, 4(33), 511-537. https://doi.org/10.1057/eej.2007.38
Miller, S. (2003). Estimación del pass-through del tipo de cambio a precios: 1995-2002. Estudios Económicos, (10).
Pérez, C. (2008). Econometría avanzada, técnicas y herramientas. Pearson Prentice Hall.
Phillips, P. C. B. & Perron, P. (1988). Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series Regression. Biometrika, 75(2), 335-346. https://doi.org/10.1093/biomet/75.2.335
Pizarro Levi, E.G. (2019). Estimación de los efectos de una devaluación en laseconomías subnacionales. El caso del sector vitivinícola argentino. Primer Premio, Premio Anual a la Investigación Económica, Fundación del Banco
Municipal de Rosario, Rosario, Santa Fe, Argentina. http://fundacionbmr.org.ar/premio-de-investigacion/
Ramos Francia, M., Ibarra, R. & Capistrán, C. (2012). El traspaso de movimientos del tipo de cambio a los precios. Un análisis para la economía mexicana. El Trimestre Económico, 79(4), 813-838. https://doi.org/10.20430/ete.v79i316.77
Rofman, A. (2017). Economías regionales en el contexto del proyecto neoliberal en marcha. CEUR-CONICET.
Samuelson, P. A. (1964). Theoretical Notes on Trade Problems. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 6(2), 145-154. https://doi.org/10.2307/1928178
Stock, J. & Watson, M. (1988). Testing for Common Trends. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 83(404), 1097-1107. https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.1988.10478707
Torres, G. (2015). Estimación del Pass-through en Argentina 1993-2010. (Trabajo final de grado, Licenciatura en Economía). Facultad de Ciencias Económicas, Universidad Nacional de Córdoba.
Vahid, F. & Engle, R. (1993). Codependent Cycles. Journal of Econometrics, 2(2),199-221. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-4076(97)00032-8
Downloads
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2021 Ernesto Gabriel Pizarro Levi

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.
By submitting articles for evaluation, the author agrees to transfer the publishing rights to Revista Apuntes del CENES for publishing in any format or mean and that the attached partial use license will be signed.
The journal is under licence Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International (CC BY-NC-SA 4.0)