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Vol. 44 No. 79 (2025)

Economic theory

State Size and Migration in Ecuador 2000-2023

https://doi.org/10.19053/uptc.01203053.v44.n79.2025.18406

Published 2025-03-12

  • Marcelo Varela
    • ,
  • Gustavo Adrián Salazar-Espinoza

Marcelo Varela
Instituto de Altos Estudios Nacionales image/svg+xml

Gustavo Adrián Salazar-Espinoza
Consultor internacional para Organismo no Gubernamental

Abstract

The economic policies of fiscal adjustment and state reduction have been shown to disturb migration conditions as part of a cumulative dynamic in the Ecuadorian case. The objective of this research is to demonstrate that the economic and social results of applying such policies drive migration. To this end, an analysis of the economic policy of fiscal adjustment between 2000-2006 and 2017-2023 is conducted, with a comparison to the economic policy of distribution between 2007-2016. The analysis is based on indicators that demonstrate the economic and social results, thereby enabling the assessment of the impact on migration. The methodology used is a descriptive analysis based on indicators and relationships between variables, as well as two econometric models: the ordinary least squares model (OLS) and the vector autoregressive model (VAR). The findings indicate that economic factors, including investment, income, employment, and salary, as well as perceived insecurity, are associated with changes in the migration indicator. In light of these results, it is advisable to reevaluate the existing frameworks for intervention and collective action, with the aim of addressing the issue of migration.

Keywords

Economic policy, fiscal policy, State, migration, Ecuador, econometrics

Author Biography

Marcelo Varela

Institute of Advanced National Studies - The Postgraduate University of the Ecuadorian State and  Central University of Ecuador

Gustavo Adrián Salazar-Espinoza

Economist from the Central University of Ecuador, Master in Development Economics from FLACSO. Independent researcher.  

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