Oro o plata: una alternativa de inversión
Resumen
El oro ha sido considerado un commodity de inversión muy valorado a lo largo de la historia, particularmente en momentos de crisis. Sin embargo, en los últimos años la plata ha llamado la atención de inversores por su desempeño en términos de rendimiento y precio, por lo que el objetivo de la presente investigación fue el de determinar en cuál de los dos metales conviene más invertir. En ese sentido, se desarrolló un método empírico, basado en las pruebas más comunes encontradas en la literatura, el cual incluyó un análisis de integración financiera con variables macroeconómicas de Estados Unidos, análisis de predictibilidad y tendencia, tasa de minusvalías, análisis de volatilidad, y análisis de rendimientos. Se estableció un enfoque de investigación del tipo cuantitativo, limitado a los Estados Unidos de América. Las variables utilizadas principalmente fueron los precios del oro y la plata, y sus rendimientos entre 1990 y 2024. Los métodos estadísticos empleados en dichas pruebas fueron: correlación lineal múltiple; ARIMA, GARCH y regresión polinomial; defectos por millón de oportunidades (DPMO); prueba de Bonett para la diferencia de varianzas; y análisis de rentabilidad a corto, mediano y largo plazo. Con el propósito de sintetizar y comparar los resultados de las pruebas se utilizó una evaluación basada en la matriz de Pugh. Como resultado, el oro obtuvo un puntaje de +1, en tanto que la plata alcanzó un valor de -1, llegando a la conclusión de que, de ambos commodities, el oro es el metal en el que más conviene invertir. Al final se mencionan algunos hallazgos y consideraciones.
Palabras clave
predicción del oro, rendimientos del oro, volatilidad del oro, inversión en metales, fondo de refugio, Macroeconomía
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