Dominancia Fiscal Versus Dominancia Monetaria: Evidencia para Colombia, 1990-2007

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Autores

Luis Ignacio Lozano Espitia
Magaly Herrera

Abstract

Bajo un régimen No-Ricardiano o de dominancia fiscal, el banco central pierde
autonomía en el control de la inflación, especialmente en circunstancias de insostenibilidad de las finanzas públicas. En este trabajo se evalúa la presencia de un régimen de esta naturaleza en la economía Colombiana, para el período 1990 a 2007, mediante el uso de un modelo de vectores autorregresivos que toma como fundamento teórico la restricción presupuestaria intertemporal del gobierno consolidado. Los resultados no permiten validar la existencia de este tipo de régimen. Se concluye, por consiguiente, que el régimen Ricardiano, o de dominancia monetaria, es el más apropiado para explicar la relación entre la política fiscal y la política monetaria durante estos años.

ABSTRACT


Under a Non-Ricardian (fiscal dominance) regime, the central bank loses autonomy to control inflation, particularly in circumstances of public finance unsustainability. In this paper, we assess the presence of this kind of regime in Colombia, for the period 1990 to 2007, through the use of a vector autoregressive model which takes as a theoretical foundation the intertemporal government budget constraint. Since our results do not verify a regime of this nature, we conclude that the Ricardian regime, also called the monetary dominance regime, is the most adequate to explain the relationship between fiscal and monetary policies along these years.

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