Efecto derrame del mercado internacional en las economías latinoamericanas: los casos de Chile, Brasil, Colombia y México

Contenido principal del artículo

Autores

Juan Manuel Candelo-Viafara https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4152-5597
Andrés Felipe Oviedo-Gómez https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9664-4684

Resumen

En esta investigación se evalúan los efectos del desbordamiento y la volatilidad generados por los precios del petróleo, el gas y el carbón sobre la actividad industrial de  las economías de Chile, Brasil, Colombia y México, usando la metodología propuesta por Diebold y Yilmaz (2012), que se caracteriza por el uso de vectores autorregresivos generalizados, donde la descomposición de la varianza no varía según el orden de las variables, midiendo así los efectos de contagio de la volatilidad total y direccional. Los resultados muestran que estas industrias reciben el derrame financiero de los mercados de materias primas, ocasionado por las fluctuaciones de los precios del petróleo y carbón y, además, se comportan como transmisoras del derrame que producen las oscilaciones de los precios del gas. Por otro lado, se halló que meses previos a la crisis económica del 2008, las cuatro industrias y dichos productos aumentaron el efecto derrame y la volatilidad.

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Detalles del artículo

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