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Vol. 41 Núm. 74 (2022)

Política económica

La relación entre el tipo de cambio, los términos de intercambio y el empleo en Turquía

https://doi.org/10.19053/01203053.v41.n74.2022.14251

Publicado 2022-07-25

  • Muhammad Salah Uddin
    • ,
  • Zobayer Ahmed
    • ,
  • Mahadi Hasan

Muhammad Salah Uddin
Sakarya University

Zobayer Ahmed
Selcuk University

Mahadi Hasan
American International University-Bangladesh

Resumen

El objetivo de este artículo es analizar el impacto del tipo de cambio real (TCR) en el empleo y el salario real utilizando datos desagregados trimestrales (clasificación ISIC Rev 4) compuestos por 19 industrias en Turquía de 2010 a 2017. Se empleó un modelo de efectos fijos, donde los efectos específicos de la industria se utilizan para controlar la heterogeneidad dentro de aquella. Los resultados reflejan que la apreciación de la moneda afecta negativamente al empleo, aunque de manera insignificante, mientras que tiene un impacto notablemente positivo en el salario real. Aunque los términos de intercambio no tienen un impacto visible en el empleo y los salarios reales, el estudio encuentra de manera única que los efectos de las industrias más grandes en el empleo son claramente adversos. No obstante, la interacción entre la apreciación de la moneda y el 25 % de las principales industrias más grandes indica un aumento moderado del empleo. Los hallazgos reflejan que la apreciación de la moneda nacional hace que el empleo disminuya en la industria. La originalidad de este documento incluye los efectos de los términos de intercambio y la interacción con la apreciación de la moneda en industrias más grandes utilizando el enfoque del modelo de efectos fijos.

Palabras clave

Empleo, tasa de cambio, términos de intercambio, salario real, Turquía

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Biografía del autor/a

Muhammad Salah Uddin

PhD student, Department of Economics, Sakarya University, Turkey

Zobayer Ahmed

Department of Economics, Selcuk University, Turkey, and Department of Economics & Banking, International Islamic University Chittagong, Bangladesh.

Mahadi Hasan

Assistant Professor, Department of Industrial and Production Engineering, American International University-Bangladesh, Dhaka, Bangladesh.    

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