Model for risk analysis of financial bankruptcy in agribusiness SMEs of Antioquia - Colombia

Main Article Content

Autores

Marisol Valencia Cárdenas
Johanna Trochez González
Juan Gabriel Vanegas López
Jorge Anibal Restrepo Morales

Abstract

The risk of bankruptcy in Antioquia’s agribusiness sector has not been extensively explored using statistical modeling, which can provide important elements and trends in order to understand the behavior of this important sector for the regional economy. This paper estimated a linear mixed model, which was used as the response variable the score obtained with Altman’s Z-Score Model, which is a latent index estimated on the basis of observable financial variables and that depending on its value, ranks companies as solvent or insolvent. The Altman’s Index was computed by company and year within the period 2010-2014, using a sample of 214 small and medium-sized companies from different subsector  of the agribusiness sector in Antioquia. The results show that the percentage of firms that enter the area of insolvency increased systematically during the time period from 8.08% in 2010 to 13% in 2014

Keywords:

Article Details

Licence

By submitting articles for evaluation, the author agrees to transfer the publishing rights to Revista Apuntes del CENES for publishing in any format or mean and that the attached partial use license will be signed. To increase their visibility, documents are sent to databases and indexing systems also can be viewed on the website and Redalyc - EBSCO - ProQuest - EconLit - DOAJ -  Scielo - Dialnet - ESCI(WoS) - Latindex  - DOTEC - REPECERIH PLUS - The WZB library -  Actualidad Iberoamericana  -   Publindex  - VCU -  Econpapers - EconBib - Bibilat  -  REDIB  -   Crossref - Worldcat -  CLASE - SHERPA ROMEO - Academia - EconBiz - Socionet - Vlex

The journal is under licence Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International (CC BY-NC-SA 4.0)

For CC licenses, the principle is the creative freedom. This system complements the copyright without oppose it. The content of the items is the responsibility of each author, and does not compromise in any way, magazine or institution.

Publishing and reproduction of titles, abstracts and full content for academic, scientific, cultural and nonprofit purposes is allowed, when the respective source is acknowledged. This work cannot be used for commercial purposes.

Apuntes del Cenes is an open access journal which means that all content is freely available without charge to the user or his/her institution. Users are allowed to read, download, copy, distribute, print, search, or link to the full texts of the articles, or use them for any other lawful purpose, without asking prior permission from the publisher or the author. This is in accordance with the BOAI definition of open access.

Apuntes del Cenes  does not charge authors for submission or publication

Form 6 Copyright Transfer Form

When sending an article to submit to the Apuntes del CENES journal, the author(s) certify and accept:

1.That the article has not been accepted for evaluation in another journal, nor has it been published.
2.That, in case a publication of a previous version as a working paper (or 'gray literature') has been reported on a website, and that, in the case of publication being accepted, it will be removed from the Internet site, where
will leave only the title, abstract, keywords and hyperlink to the journal.

3.
That once published in Apuntes del CENES will not be published in another magazine.

References

Abouzeedan, A. & Busler, M. (2004). Typology analysis of performance models of small and medium-size enterprises (SMEs). Journal of International Entrepreneurship, 2(1-2), 155-177.

Altman, E. I. (1968). Financial Ratios, Discriminant Analysis and the Prediction of Corporate Bankruptcy. The Journal of Finance, 23(4), 589-609. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111j.1540-6261.1968.tb00843.x

Altman, E. I. & Sabato, G. (2007). Modelling Credit Risk for SMEs: Evidence from the US Market. Abacus, 43(3), 332-357. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-6281.2007.00234.x

Álvarez, C. (2015). Plan de choque. Dinero, 468, 2.

Arango, L. (2015). Agro: lo que pasó en 2014 y perspectivas del 2015. Portafolio, 1. Recuperado de http://www.portafolio.co/economia/agricultura-2014-perspectivas-del-2015

Astorga, A. (2013). Modelos de predicción de la insolvencia empresarial. México DF: Instituto Federal de Especialistas de Concursos Mercantiles (IFECOM).

Baca, J., Mendoza, B., Sánchez, M., Suarez, V., Volpe, I. & Altamiranda, L. (2012). Desarrollo y competitividad clave fundamental del sector lacteo colombiano. En Tenth LACCEI Latin American and Caribbean Conference for Engineering and Technology, 10. Retrieved from http://www.laccei.org/LACCEI2012-Panama/RefereedPapers/RP255.pdf

Behr, P. & Güttler, A. (2007). Credit Risk Assessment and Relationship Lending: An Empirical Analysis of German Small and Medium‐Sized Enterprises. Journal of Small Business Management, 45(2), 194-213. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-627X.2007.00209.x

Botero, J. (2005). Estimación del impacto sobre el empleo de los tratados de libre comercio en Colombia: Análisis de equilibrio general computable. Bogotá: Cepal.

Cámara de Comercio de Medellín. (2012). Industria en Antioquia. Un sector que permanece y crece. Recuperado de http://www.camaramedellin.com.co/site/Portals0Documentos2012/rueda-de-prensa-industria-en-antioquia.pdf

Celaya F, R., & López P, M. (2013). ¿ Cómo determinar su riesgo empresarial? Revista EAN(52), 68-75.

Chernobai, A. & Rachev, S. (2006). Applying Robust Methods to Operational Risk Modeling. Journal of Operational Risk, 1(1), 27-41.

Chowdhry, B. & Howe, J. T. (1999). Corporate Risk Management for Multinational Corporations: Financial and Operational Hedging Policies. European Finance Review, 2(2), 229-246.

Cruz, M. (2004). Operational risk modelling and analys: Theory and practice. London: Incisive Media Investments Limited - Book Risk.

Dinero. (2015, 21 de agosto). La caída de importaciones en junio es menor a la de mayo y abril. Dinero.com. Recuperado de http://www.dinero.com/economia/articulo/importaciones-junio-2015-dane/212618

Dobson, W. D. (2003). Developments in the Dairy Industries of Mexico, Central America, Argentina, and Brazil--Implications for the US Dairy Sector. Babcock Institute Discussion Paper, (2003-4).

Fantazzini, D. & Figini, S. (2008). Default Forecasting for Small-Medium Enterprises: Does Heterogeneity Matter? International Journal of Risk Assessment and Management, 11(1-2), 138-163.

Frachot, A. (2003). Loss Distribution Approach in Practice. Obtenido de http://www.thierry-roncalli.com/download/lda.pdf

García, R. (2002). Crisis agrícola, Tratado de Libre Comercio y migración internacional en México. En Ponencia presentada en el II Congreso Mundial sobre Comercio y Desarrollo Rural, en La Guardia, España (pp. 24-25). Recuperado de www.eumed.net/cursecon/ecolat/

García I., J.G. (2002). Liberalización, cambio estructural y crecimiento económico en Colombia. Cuadernos de Economía, 21(36), 189-244. Recuperado de http://www.scielo.org.co/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0121-47722002000100009&lng=en&tlng=es.

Gillet, R., Hübner, G. & Plunus, S. (2010). Operational Risk and Reputation in the Financial Industry. Journal of Banking & Finance, 34(1), 224-235.

Hernández González, J. W., Daza Castro, N., Moreno, M., Viviana, L., & Díaz Castro, J. (2015). Aplicación del Modelo Z Score de Altman al sector de manufactura de calzado y productos relacionados en Colombia.

Iurkova, M. & Sadovnikova, E. (2015). The Main Tendencies of the Development of Russian Agrarian Sector and the Effect of State Policy on Investment Sphere in Agriculture. Poljoprivreda i Sumarstvo, 61(1), 41.

Khemais, Z., Nesrine, D. & Mohamed, M. (2016). Credit Scoring and Default Risk Prediction: A Comparative Study between Discriminant Analysis & Logistic Regression. International Journal of Economics and Finance, 8(4), 39.

Kornyliuk, A. (2014). The analysis of the financial risks of domestic agriholdings. The Advanced Science Journal, (11), 65-68.

López, L. F. (2010). Transformación productiva de la industria en Colombia y sus regiones después de la apertura económica. Cuadernos de Economía, 29(53), 239-286.

Marín, J. J. A. (2008). Cómo medir la quiebra de las empresas en Santander, el modelo logístico: una herramienta para evaluar el riesgo de quiebra. REVISTA CIFE

Marshall, C. L., & Marshall, D. C. (2001). Measuring and managing operational risks in financial institutions: tools, techniques, and other resources. (J. Wiley, Ed.) New York.

Montoya, A., Montoya, I. & Castellanos, O. (2010). Situación de la competitividad de las pyme en Colombia: elementos actuales y retos. Agronomía Colombiana, 28(1), 107–117.

OCDE. (2015). Revisión de la OCDE de las políticas agrícolas: Colombia 2015 evaluación y recomendaciones de política. Obtenido de https://www.minagricultura.gov.co/Reportes/OECD_Review_Agriculture_Colombia_2015_Spanish_Summary.pdf

ONU. (2005). Clasificación industrial internacional uniforme de todas las actividades económicas. Obtenido de http://unstats.un.org/unsd/publication/seriesM/seriesm_4rev4s.pdf

Rachev, A. C. a. S. (2006). Applying robust methods to operational risk modeling. Journal of Operational Risk, 1, 27-41.

R Core Team. (2014). A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing. Vienna, Austria: R Foundation for Statistical Computing. Retrieved from http://www.rproject.org/

Restrepo, J. (2014). Operative Risk SMES. Global Journal, 65-76.

Restrepo, J. A. & Vanegas, J. G. (2015). Internacionalización de las pymes: análisis de recursos y capacidades internas mediante lógica difusa. Contaduría y Administración, 60(4).

Stevanovski, M., Velkovski, V. & Stevanovska, K. (2013). The relation between the long-term investments and the risk in agro-industrial complex. Journal of Hygienic Engineering and Design, 4, 127-131.

Tróchez, J. & Valencia, M. (2014). Análisis de series temporales en el sector lácteo de Antioquia para detectar efectos de la apertura comercial. Revista Investigaciones Aplicadas, 8(2), 140–151. Recuperado de http://revistas.upb.edu.co/index.php/investigacionesaplicadas

Vega, S., Coronado, M., Gutiérrez, R., García, A. & Díaz, G. (2006). Un aporte sobre la industria láctea orgánica y la innovación tecnológica. Revista Mexicana de Agronegocios, 10(19).

West, B., Welch, K. & Galecki, A. (2007). Linear mixed models A practical guide using Statistical Software. Boca Raton: CRC Press.

Woods, K. (2013). The politics of the emerging agro-industrial complex in Asia’s ‘final frontier’: The war on food sovereignty in Burma. In Paper presented at the Food Sovereignty: A Critical Dialogue. International Conference, Yale University.

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.