La actividad innovadora y sus fuentes de incertidumbre: una taxonomía integral
Resumen
La única certeza en la innovación es la incertidumbre. La prevalencia de incógnitas heterogéneas, el carácter novedoso, no estándar, complejo, multivariable e interdependiente hace de la innovación un proceso razonado bajo incertidumbre. Cuando se describen los efectos adversos de este proceso, con frecuencia se hace refiriéndose a los términos riesgo e incertidumbre indistintamente dado el límite difuso entre ambos. Sin embargo, esta confusión puede llevar a tomar decisiones con deficiente calidad al suponer que se conocen con claridad variables importantes que afectan la innovación cuando en realidad no es así. Ante esta disparidad y ambigüedad teórica y empírica detectada, este trabajo desarrolla un análisis del concepto de incertidumbre, identifica sus características clave y ofrece una taxonomía de las fuentes que la originan en el contexto de la innovación. A través de un análisis de revisión de literatura mixta se presenta una proposición de incertidumbre que integra la percepción, los procesos de cognición, las limitaciones cognitivas, la brecha de información o conocimiento, la calidad y su accesibilidad, así como la inferencia y la construcción de modelos subjetivos que dan sentido a las situaciones experimentadas. Además, los resultados aportan la identificación de cinco características clave y nueve fuentes de incertidumbre: 1) Política - económica, 2) Sociocultural – socioambiental, 3) Mercado, 4) Relaciones de cooperación, colaboración y coinnovación, 5) Técnico – tecnológico, 6) Capital financiero, 7) Capital intelectual humano, 8) Gobierno corporativo - Interdependencias operativas y 9) Comercial.
Códigos JEL: O30, O31
Recibido: 26/09/2023. Aceptado: 14/04/2024. Publicado: 18/05/2024
Palabras clave
innovación, incertidumbre, percepción, conocimiento
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